基于1998-2018年年度数据的我国对外经济贸易与医药制造业互动关系实证研究
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篇名: 基于1998-2018年年度数据的我国对外经济贸易与医药制造业互动关系实证研究
TITLE: Empirical Study on the Interaction between Foreign Economic Trade and Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry Based on the Annual Data of 1998-2018 in China
摘要: 目的:探讨我国对外经济贸易与医药制造业之间的互动关系,为我国对外经济贸易活动及医药制造业发展提供参考。方法:收集国家统计局、《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》和《中国科技统计年鉴》等公布的1998-2018年我国对外经济贸易与医药制造业的相关统计数据,参考相关文献方法,构建包含对外经济贸易系统和医药制造业系统的数据指标体系,采用准则重要性法对数据指标赋权,采用线性加权法计算综合评价指标结果,采用向量自回归模型对我国对外经济贸易与医药制造业的关系进行研究分析,并提出相应建议。结果与结论:从协整检验结果来看,我国对外经济贸易的发展对于医药制造业的发展具有一定的促进作用和带动作用(相关系数为0.432918);从格兰杰因果检验结果来看,对外经济贸易发展是医药制造业发展的格兰杰原因(置信概率小于0.001),而医药制造业发展不是对外经济贸易的格兰杰原因(置信概率为0.358);从脉冲响应和方差分解结果来看,我国对外经济贸易与医药制造业的发展间存在相互影响的关系,但对外经济贸易对医药制造业发展影响的贡献较小。建议我国医药制造企业应及时把握市场需求和贸易机会,通过提供高质量的医药品进一步扩大经营规模;充分利用新型贸易方式,加快医药品在对外经济贸易活动中的流通速度和效率,以进一步拓宽其国内外市场;国家应尽快制定和完善对医药制造产业的优惠及扶持政策,为医药制造企业减轻负担。无论是从国家层面还是企业层面,均应适当增加医药制造业科研投入,加大产业培育力度,以推动医药制造业快速发展,实现对外经济贸易和医药制造业相互促进的良性循环。
ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: To invest igate the intraction between China ’s foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry ,in order to provide the reference for China ’s foreign economic trade growth and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry development in the future. METHODS :By collecting the data of China ’s foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry during 1998-2018 issued by National Bureau of Statistics ,China Statistics Yearbook on High Technology Industry and China Statistics Yearbook on Scientific Technology ,referring to relevant literature method ,index system was established that includes the foreign economic trade system and the pharmaceutical manufacturing system. CRITIC method was adopted to assign the weight of data index and calculate comprehensive evaluation data. VAR model was used to analyze the interaction between China ’s foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and put forward the suggestions. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS :From the results of cointegration test ,foreign economic trade development played a strong role in promoting and driving pharmaceutical manufacturing industry development (correlation coefficient was 0.432 198);from the results of Granger causality test ,the development of foreign economic trade was the Granger cause for pharmaceutical manufacturing industry development (confidence probability was lower than 0.001),but the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry development was not the Granger ’s reason for foreign economic trade (confidence probability was 0.358). By the results of impulse response and variance decomposition ,it reflected an interrelationship between the two ,but the contribution of foreign economic trade to the development of pharmaceutical manufacturing is relatively small. It is suggested that China ’s pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises should grasp the market demand and trade opportunities in time ,and further expand the scale of business by providing high quality pharmaceutices products ;make full use of new trade mode and speed up the circulation of pharmaceutical products in economic and trade activities so as to further expand the domestic and foreign markets of pharmaceutical products ;the state should formulate and improve the preferential and supporting policies for pharmaceutical manufacturing industry as soon as possible to reduce the burden for pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises. In addition ,from the national level and the enterprise level ,we should appropriately increase the investment in scientific research of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and increase industry cultiration,so as to promote the rapid development of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and realize a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of foreign economic trade and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.
期刊: 2020年第31卷第14期
作者: 曹允春,林浩楠
AUTHORS: CAO Yunchun ,LIN Haonan
关键字: 对外经济贸易;医药制造业;互动关系;实证研究;向量自回归模型
KEYWORDS: Foreign economic trade ; Pharmaceutical manufacturing industry ; Interaction; Empirical study ; Vector
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