博弈论视角下药品带量采购降价的影响因素分析
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篇名: 博弈论视角下药品带量采购降价的影响因素分析
TITLE: Analysis of Influential Factors for Price Reduction of Drug Quantity Purchasing in Perspective of Gaming Theory
摘要: 目的:为完善我国药品集中采购制度提供参考。方法:基于博弈论,假设所有参与投标的药品生产企业均是理性的,其目标均为自身利益的最大化,参与投标的药品生产企业对其他参与投标的药品生产企业的报价在开标前不知情,参与投标的药品生产企业之间无合谋行为,各企业报价重复为小概率事件,即基本不可能发生。在以上假设条件下针对药品带量采购招标过程,构建不完全信息的静态博弈模型,分析药品带量采购降价的影响因素,并提出相关建议。结果与结论:成功构建了博弈模型,该模型涵盖了具有参与药品集中采购资格的企业数量和最多中标企业数量以及其申报价格、成本、报价策略和企业中标后可获得的平均约定采购量、中标概率、中标后的期望收益等内容。在此模型下,落标企业数量越多、申报价格上下限越低(但下限不能低于成本价)、合同约定采购量越大,均有利于获得更低的中标价格。基于此,笔者建议在完善我国药品集中招标采购制度时,政府应积极构建N>n(申报资格的企业数量大于最多可中选的企业数量)的竞争格局,设置合理的价格上下限,并明确约定采购量。
ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To provide reference for the improvement of centralized drug procurement system in China. METHODS:Based on gaming theory , it was assumed that all drug manufacturers participating in the bidding were rational ,and their goals were to maximize their own interests. Drug manufacturers participating in the bidding did not know the quotations of other drug manufacturers participating in the bidding before the bid opening. There was no collusion among drug manufacturers participating in the bidding ,and the quotations of each manufacturer were repeated as small probability events ,which meant it was basically impossible to occur. Under the above assumptions ,a static game model with incomplete information was constructed for the bidding process to analyze the influential factors of price reduction of drug quantity purchasing ,then related suggestions were put forward. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS :The gaming model was established successfully. The model covered the number of enterprises with the qualification to participate in the centralized procurement of drugs ,the number of the most successful enterprises and their declared price ,cost,quotation strategy ,the average agreed purchase volume after bidding ,the probability of winning the bidding ,the expected income after winning the bidding ,etc. The larger number of unsuccessful manufacturers ,the lower upper and lower limits (but the lower limits could not lower than cost price )of drug price ,and the greater agreed purchase quantity were all beneficial to acquire a lower selected price under this model. Based on this ,the author suggests that the government should actively construct the competitive pattern of N>n(the number of enterprises applying for qualification is greater than the number of enterprises that can be selected at most ),set a reasonable price upper and lower limit and specify the purchase quantity when improving the centralized bidding system of drugs in China.
期刊: 2020年第31卷第09期
作者: 何锐,葛靖,何梦娇,路云
AUTHORS: HE Rui,GE Jing,HE Mengjiao ,LU Yun
关键字: 药品;带量采购;价格;博弈论;影响因素
KEYWORDS: Drug;Quantity purchasing ;Price;Gaming theory ;Influential factors
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